Prediciton is always a dodgy pastime, but it's amazing how many professional prediction pundits there are out there. And they get paid, handsomely whether they're right or wrong! Take economists, half of them say one thing and half the complete opposite. It doesn't matter who's right at the end of the day, they all get paid!

There was a famous stock experiment carried out in the 60s where a bunch of journalists selected 10 stocks by throwing darts into the Wall St stock listings. The picks were then locked in a safe for ten years. Meanwhile, professional stock brokers were allowed to bet an idenctical amount of money by picking and choosing which stocks they felt would perform well. At the end of the decade. the stocks picked by the throw of darts out performed every stock broker that took part in the experiment!

So this year, I thought I'd stick my neck out and make a few predictions about the year ahead.

Apparently the number of natural disasters has greatly increased over the last few decades, so my first grim predictions will be that at least two huge natural diasters, along the scale of the asian tsunami or the recent Pakistan earthquake will occur, with at least 100,000 deaths recorded. The American hurricane season will be much like last years, with more storms of increased ferocity. Unusual weather patterns will continue to be recorded across Europe and indeed most of the rest of the world, as the growing global warming wreaks havoc with traditional weather patterns the world over.

In Iraq, a year from now will be much like it is today. A corrupt federalist leaning government dominated by sectarian Shias will hold sway. American forces will still hover near the 130,000 mark, support for the occupation will continue to fall as other countries pull their forces out. Bush will continue to lie about progress in Iraq, massaging figures so that it appears that troop reductions are happening and that the country is heading in the right direction. Incursions into Syria will begin to happen from time to time as Bush tries to topple Assad and replace him with a more compliant strongman and to focus attention away from Iraq as mid-term the elections near.

Israel, with America's blessing, will strike at Iran, sometime in the spring/early summer. A missile strike, it will be more a token effort than anything truly damagaging, designed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

America will continue to torture people and incarcerate people without trial indefinitely. More embarrassing revelations will continue to hamstring Bush, who's popularity will once again plummet as little progress is seen in Iraq.

The dollar, so mysteriously gaining strength in 2005, will start tipping back towards its 'true' price, a depreciation of anything up to 20%. Complicating matters is the puzzling American house market, which although slowed down in the last quarter of 2005, remains more affordable for most than it was 20 years ago. A catastrophic collapse of the bubble is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out as lenders irresponsibly dish out dosh to anyone that asks for it. There may be local house-price crashes however, in the 30% or so of America where they've gone through the roof(!) literally.

The American defecits will continue to soar, with little interest shown in dealing with them, especially not in an election year which will see quite a few Republican losses, but not a meltdown as the Democrats continue to try and define what on earth it is they stand for.

North Korea will continue much as it is, annoying the US but nothing more sinister. Tensions between China and Japan will continue to grow, but again nothing too serious will come of it. Chinese nationalism will contiue to flourish encouraged in part by the government.

Osama will continue to elude capture, while at least two terrorist attacks will be carried out in Western Europe. America will remain attack free.

South America will continue to lurch to the left and tensions with the US will continue to grow.

BIrd flu will remain a threat as more people die but the virus fails to make the right mutation to allow it to spread to humans, the usual monthly reports will fuss about the imminent danger

In sport, Brazil once more will lift the World Cup, and England will be the losers in the final. Wales will come a poor 4th in the Six Nations, decimated by injury and suspensions.

And the one true cert? No British person will win a Wimbledon title!

That's enough predicting, I'm jiggered, so Blwyddyn Newydd Dda  (happy New Year) to all my readers and may it be a good one for all!

yechcydda,